finance – ilari.scheinin.fi

Estimates for Apple’s 1st Fiscal Quarter 2014

Ilari Scheinin — Sun, 29 Dec 2013 15:18:48 +0000

Values in millions, except for earnings per share.

			2014Q1	2013Q1
iPhone:	50.0 x	$610 =	$30,500	$30,660
iPad:	27.0 x	$450 =	$12,150	$10,674
Mac:	4.2 x	$1,350 =	$5,670	$5,519
iPod:	12.0 x	$160 =	$1,920	$2,143
iTunes/Software/Services:			$4,600	$3,687
Accessories:			$1,700	$1,829
Net sales:			$56,540	$54,512

Cost of sales:			-$35,620	-$33,452
Gross margin:		(37.0%)	$20,920	$21,060
Operating expenses:			-$4,475	-$3,850
Operating income:			$16,445	$17,210
Other income and expenses:			$250	$462
Income before provision for income taxes:			$16,695	$17,672
Provision for income taxes:		(26.4%)	-$4,407	-$4,594
Net income:			$12,287	$13,078

Earnings per diluted share:	(900,000,000 shares)		$13,65	$13,81

Published on December 29th, 2013.

Disclosure: Long AAPL call options.

Estimates for Apple’s 4th Fiscal Quarter 2013

Ilari Scheinin — Sat, 28 Sep 2013 15:17:49 +0000

Values in millions, except for earnings per share.

			2013Q4	2012Q4
iPhone:	32.0 x	$590 =	$18,880	$16,645
iPad:	16.0 x	$430 =	$6,880	$7,133
Mac:	4.5 x	$1,300 =	$5,850	$6,617
iPod:	3.0 x	$160 =	$480	$820
iTunes/Software/Services:			$4,200	$3,496
Accessories:			$1,500	$1,255
Net sales:			$37,790	$35,966

Cost of sales:			-$23,808	-$21,565
Gross margin:		(37.0%)	$13,982	$14,401
Operating expenses:			-$4,000	-$3,457
Operating income:			$19,982	$10,944
Other income and expenses:			$200	-$51
Income before provision for income taxes:			$10,182	$10,893
Provision for income taxes:		(26.5%)	-$2,698	-$2,670
Net income:			$7,484	$8,223

Earnings per diluted share:	(900,000,000 shares)		$8,32	$8.67

Published on September 28th, 2013.

Disclosure: Long AAPL call options.

Estimates for Apple’s 3rd Fiscal Quarter 2013

Ilari Scheinin — Tue, 18 Jun 2013 15:16:55 +0000

Values in millions, except for earnings per share.

			2013Q3	2012Q3
iPhone:	30.0 x	$600 =	$18,000	$15,821
iPad:	19.0 x	$450 =	$8,550	$8,779
Mac:	4.0 x	$1,300 =	$5,200	$4,933
iPod:	5.0 x	$170 =	$850	$1,060
iTunes/Software/Services:			$4,200	$3,203
Accessories:			$1,500	$1,227
Net sales:			$38,300	$35,023

Cost of sales:			-$24,129	-$20,029
Gross margin:		(37.0%)	$14,171	$14,994
Operating expenses:			-$4,000	-$3,421
Operating income:			$10,171	$11,573
Other income and expenses:			$400	$288
Income before provision for income taxes:			$10,571	$11,861
Provision for income taxes:		(26.0%)	-$2,748	-$3,037
Net income:			$7,823	$8,824

Earnings per diluted share:	(944,000,000 shares)		$8,29	$9.32

Published on June 18th, 2013.

Disclosure: Long AAPL call options.

Estimates for Apple’s 2nd Fiscal Quarter 2013

Ilari Scheinin — Sat, 06 Apr 2013 15:16:02 +0000

Values in millions, except for earnings per share.

			2013Q2	2012Q2
iPhone:	41.0 x	$620 =	$25,420	$22,276
iPad:	17.0 x	$450 =	$7,650	$6,264
Mac:	4.0 x	$1,300 =	$5,200	$5,073
iPod:	4.7 x	$160 =	$752	$1,207
iTunes/Software/Services:			$4,000	$3,171
Accessories:			$1,500	$1,195
Net sales:			$44,522	$39,186

Cost of sales:			-$27,158	-$20,622
Gross margin:		(39.0%)	$17,364	$18,564
Operating expenses:			-$3,800	-$3,180
Operating income:			$13,564	$15,384
Other income and expenses:			$350	$148
Income before provision for income taxes:			$13,914	$15,532
Provision for income taxes:		(26.0%)	-$3,618	-$3,910
Net income:			$10,296	$11,622

Earnings per diluted share:	(948,000,000 shares)		$10.86	$12.30

Published on April 6th, 2013, and revised from initial numbers.

Disclosure: Long AAPL call options.

Estimates for Apple’s 1st Fiscal Quarter 2013

Ilari Scheinin — Fri, 28 Dec 2012 15:12:35 +0000

Values in millions, except for earnings per share.

			2013Q1	2012Q1
iPhone:	49.0 x	$630 =	$30,870	$24,417
iPad:	24.0 x	$490 =	$11,760	$9,153
Mac:	5.2 x	$1,350 =	$7,020	$6,598
iPod:	14.0 x	$165 =	$2,310	$2,528
Other music related:			$2,500	$2,027
Peripherals and other hardware:			$750	$766
Software, service and other sales:			$950	$844
Net sales:			$56,160	$46,333

Cost of sales:			-$33,977	-$25,630
Gross margin:		(39.5%)	$22,183	$20,703
Operating expenses:			-$4,100	-$3,363
Operating income:			$18,083	$17,340
Other income and expenses:			$350	$137
Income before provision for income taxes:			$18,433	$17,477
Provision for income taxes:		(25.9%)	-$4,774	-$4,413
Net income:			$13,659	$13,064

Earnings per diluted share:	(950,000,000 shares)		$14.38	$13.87

Published on December 28th, 2012, and revised from initial numbers.

Disclosure: Long various vertical AAPL call option spreads.

A Capitalist’s Dilemma, Whoever Wins the Election

Ilari Scheinin — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 08:31:46 +0000

A Capitalist’s Dilemma, Whoever Wins the Election

It’s as if our leaders in Washington, all highly credentialed, are standing on a beach holding their fire hoses full open, pouring more capital into an ocean of capital. We are trying to solve the wrong problem.

Estimates for Apple’s 4th Fiscal Quarter 2012

Ilari Scheinin — Wed, 05 Sep 2012 15:07:07 +0000

Values in millions, except for earnings per share.

			2012Q4	2011Q4
iPhone:	27.0 x	$630 =	$17,010	$10,980
iPad:	20.0 x	$560 =	$11,2000	$6,868
Mac:	5.2 x	$1300 =	$6,760	$6,272
iPod:	6.2 x	$165 =	$1,023	$1,103
Other music related:			$1,800	$1,678
Peripherals and other hardware:			$660	$640
Software, service and other sales:			$960	$729
Net sales:			$35,996	$28,270

Cost of sales:			-$20,770	-$16,890
Gross margin:		(42.3%)	$15,226	$11,380
Operating expenses:			-$3,100	-$2,670
Operating income:			$12,126	$8,710
Other income and expenses:			$150	$81
Income before provision for income taxes:			$12,276	$8,791
Provision for income taxes:		(25.5%)	-$3,131	-$2,168
Net income:			$9,146	$6,623

Earnings per diluted share:	(950,000,000 shares)		$9,63	$7.05

Published on September 28th, 2012.

Disclosure: Long various vertical AAPL call option spreads.

Estimates for Apple’s 3rd Fiscal Quarter 2012

Ilari Scheinin — Wed, 23 May 2012 15:00:45 +0000

Values in millions, except for earnings per share.

			2012Q3	2011Q3
iPhone:	30.5 x	$640 =	$19,520	$13,311
iPad:	21.5 x	$550 =	$11,825	$6,046
Mac:	4.3 x	$1250 =	$5,375	$5,105
iPod:	6.5 x	$160 =	$1,040	$1,325
Other music related:			$1,800	$1,571
Peripherals and other hardware:			$600	$517
Software, service and other sales:			$800	$696
Net sales:			$40,960	$28,571

Cost of sales:			-$22,446	-$16,649
Gross margin:		(45.2%)	$18,514	$11,922
Operating expenses:			-$2,800	-$2,543
Operating income:			$15,714	$9,379
Other income and expenses:			$100	$172
Income before provision for income taxes:			$15,814	$9,551
Provision for income taxes:		(25.1%)	-$3,969	-$2,243
Net income:			$11,845	$7,308

Earnings per diluted share:	(950,000,000 shares)		$12.47	$7.79

Published on May 23rd, 2012.

Disclosure: Long various vertical AAPL call option spreads.

Why I Am Leaving Goldman Sachs

Ilari Scheinin — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 13:16:29 +0000

Why I Am Leaving Goldman Sachs

It astounds me how little senior management gets a basic truth: If clients don’t trust you they will eventually stop doing business with you.

The Dumbest Idea In The World: Maximizing Shareholder Value

Ilari Scheinin — Wed, 30 Nov 2011 09:51:22 +0000

The Dumbest Idea In The World: Maximizing Shareholder Value

It’s a obviously complicated issue, and I’m not sure how realistic the proposals are, but there are some good points here.

If you take care of customers, shareholders will be drawn along for a very nice ride. The opposite is simply not true: if you try to take care of shareholders, customers don’t benefit and, ironically, shareholders don’t get very far either.